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The biggest change in the new report is that these emissions pathways don’t stand alone. Like its predecessor, the Sixth Assessment also includes 2.6 and 4.5 watts per square meter radiative forcing scenarios, as well as a high-end scenario of 7 watts per square meter.
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The 1.9 scenario, which limits global warming to below 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), was added to the latest IPCC report as a direct result of nations adopting a 1.5☌ global warming target in the Paris Agreement, according to Zeke Hausfather, who directs climate and energy at The Breakthrough Institute, an environmental research center focused on technological solutions. Like the RCPs, each includes an emissions pathway represented by end-of-century radiative forcing-in this case, ranging from a best case of 1.9 watts per square meter to a sci-fi disaster movie-like 8.5 watts per square meter. The scenarios underpinning the Sixth Assessment Report contain additional human elements that make them a bit more complex to decode. When Earth receives more energy via radiative forcing, temperatures rise. The number following each scenario indicates “radiative forcing,” or how much extra energy our emissions add to the Earth system, measured in watts per square meter, by 2100. The RCP scenarios differ based on the amount of effort humanity puts into limiting climate change, ranging from the high-mitigation, low-emissions RCP-2.6 scenario to the no-mitigation, high-emissions RCP-8.5 scenario.
RISE OF NATIONS SCENARIOS SERIES
The anatomy of a climate scenarioįor the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, released in 20, modelers used a series of “representative concentration pathways,” or RCPs, to project our climate future. But the report’s authors chose to present a wide range of storylines to help policymakers and the public understand the choices in front of us-and what’s at stake if we don’t choose wisely. So I’m really looking forward to those reports.”īased on current trends in global energy use and recent climate policy, some of the IPCC’s futures appear to be more likely than others. “Mitigation also relies on these scenarios, because they represent different attitudes toward technological advancement. “Adaptation depends heavily on these narratives of ‘is the world cooperative, are wealthy countries helping less wealthy countries?’” Tierney says. The implications of the different socioeconomic storylines will come into play more in the second and third chapters of the new IPCC report, slated for release in 2022, since these chapters focus on climate adaptation and mitigation, says University of Arizona climate scientist and IPCC co-author Jessica Tierney. In the IPCC report released last week, the different emissions levels of the various scenarios drive different levels of warming in climate models, resulting in a range of physical impacts on the planet. In others, global cooperation is fractured by nationalism, increases in poverty, soaring emissions, and unimaginably hot weather. The world is hotter and the weather is more dangerous, but the worst climate impacts are averted and societies are able to adapt. In some of those endings, humanity rises to the climate challenge while making concurrent efforts to reduce poverty and improve quality of life for everyone. Each narrative pairs a different socioeconomic development scenario with a different carbon emissions pathway, resulting in a Choose Your Own Adventure-style series of endings to the story of 21st-century climate change. The new report features five climate narratives that differ in terms of the level of projected warming and society’s ability to adapt to the changes ahead.
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The spectrum of possible futures that await us underpin the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, whose first chapter on the physical science of climate change was released last week. Depending on global economic trends, technological progress, geopolitical developments, and most important, how aggressively we act to reduce carbon emissions, the world at the end of the 21st century could turn out to be radically different. The UN’s latest report on the state of the climate offers a stark warning that humanity’s future could be filled with apocalyptic natural disasters.